Max Fried, the Atlanta Braves’ top pitcher, is one of the most intriguing pitchers for the 2024 season. Fried’s on-field performance is outstanding, with a career record of 62-26 (.705), a stellar ERA of 3.03, and a strikeout-to-innings pitched ratio of nearly 1:1. He has quietly established himself as one of the best pitchers under 30 in the NL. His stats and background as he enters his first major free agency years in 2025 are drawing similarities to Blake Snell, the 2023 NL Cy Young champion.
Fried’s performance in previous seasons has always been outstanding. Despite suffering with ailments during the 2023 season, Fried posted an 8-1 record with a 2.55 ERA. His ability to recover from hardship demonstrates his perseverance and determination, which will likely serve him well in the future season.
What Should We Expect From Fried in 2024?
Fried, the Braves’ number-two starter behind rising phenom Spencer Strider, will have his greatest season. He is healthy, and he is pitching in front of a powerful lineup that will provide him with tremendous run support. There’s little reason to think Fried won’t win 20 games.
Fangraphs ZIPs projects him to start 32 games. With a career average of.705, it’s reasonable to expect 20 victories this season. The most he has won is 17 in 2019, thus assuming he stays healthy, 2024 will be his highest career victory total in a single season.
Fried’s ERA is expected to be 3.15 in 177 innings in 2024, yet over the last 44 starts covering two seasons, he has an ERA of 2.51. In terms of efficiency, he challenges Jacob DeGrom and Shohei Ohtani. With his free agency approaching, Fried will keep this 2.50 mark in 2024.
With his career 8.4 K/9 and 177 innings this season, 160 strikeouts are projected to be over/under the mark. Take the over; this is Fried’s one chance to land a large deal and make serious money.
Fried will not be a Brave in 2025.
The Braves are not known for overpaying players who have passed their prime. That is assuming Fried has the season he is anticipated to have and the Braves win the National League. They will let Fried walk at the end of the season. It’s best for Fried and the Braves organization; Fried will get a massive contract, and the Braves will get the best from a 30-year-old pitcher.
Fried’s West Coast roots have sparked talk that he may return home. If Fried decides to leave the Braves, teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers, Los Angeles Angels, San Francisco Giants, and San Diego Padres could be interested in signing him. However, you can’t rule out Texas or the Diamondbacks as prospective destinations. This possibility adds a fascinating aspect to the forthcoming season, as Fried’s performances may draw interest from these teams.
One thing is certain: if Fried has a Blake Snell-type year, he will be the hottest free agent on the market, and with a salary of $30 million next season, the Braves will have plenty of incentive to sign him.
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